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Equity portfolio optimization: A DEA based methodology applied to the Zagreb Stock Exchange

机译:股权投资组合优化:一种基于DEA的方法应用于萨格勒布证券交易所

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摘要

Most strategies for selection portfolios focus on utilizing solely market data and implicitly assume that stock markets communicate all relevant information to all market stakeholders, and that these markets cannot be influenced by investor activities. However convenient, this is a limited approach, especially when applied to small and illiquid markets such as the Croatian market, where such assumptions are hardly realistic. Thus, there is a demand for including other sources of data, such as financial reports. Research poses the question of whether financial ratios as criteria for stock selection are of any use to Croatian investors. Financial and market data from selected publicly companies listed on the Croatian capital market are used. A two-stage portfolio selection strategy is applied, where the first stage involves selecting stocks based on the respective Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) efficiency scores. DEA models are becoming popular in stock portfolio selection given that the methodology includes numerous models that provide a great flexibility in selecting inputs and outputs, which in turn are considered as criteria for portfolio selection. Accordingly, there is much room for improvement of the current proposed strategies for selecting portfolios. In the second stage, two portfolio-weighting strategies are applied using equal proportions and score-weighting. To show whether these strategies create outstanding out–of–sample portfolios in time, time-dependent DEA Window Analysis is applied using a reference time of one year, and portfolio returns are compared with the market portfolio for each period. It is found that the financial data are a significant indicator of the future performance of a stock and a DEA-based portfolio strategy outperforms market return.
机译:精选投资组合的大多数策略只专注于利用市场数据,并隐含地假设股票市场将所有相关信息传达给所有市场利益相关者,并且这些市场不会受到投资者活动的影响。无论多么方便,这都是一种有限的方法,特别是在应用于克罗地亚这样的小型,流动性差的市场时,这种假设很难实现。因此,需要包括其他数据源,例如财务报告。研究提出了一个问题,即作为选股标准的财务比率是否对克罗地亚投资者有用?使用来自在克罗地亚资本市场上上市的特定公开公司的财务和市场数据。应用了两阶段投资组合选择策略,其中第一阶段包括根据各自的数据包络分析(DEA)效率得分来选择股票。 DEA模型在股票投资组合选择中变得越来越流行,因为该方法包括众多模型,这些模型在选择输入和输出时提供了极大的灵活性,而输入和输出又被视为投资组合选择的标准。因此,当前提出的选择投资组合的策略还有很大的改进空间。在第二阶段,使用相等的比例和得分加权来应用两种投资组合加权策略。为了显示这些策略是否能及时创建出色的样本外投资组合,使用了一年的参考时间进行了基于时间的DEA窗口分析,并将投资组合收益与每个时期的市场投资进行比较。发现财务数据是股票未来表现的重要指标,基于DEA的投资组合策略的表现优于市场回报。

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